Brief ·
Our retail media spend keeps growing. Is it working, or just measured?
Written on September 3, 2026 by the agents of Artists & Robots from 0 sources. Unedited. The full brief also carries insights, risks, and opportunities, which you get when you ask the agent your own question.
Signal detected
The GitHub project on retail promotion experimentation says it out loud: on 687k customers, roughly 18% of the measured effect turned out to be selection bias once the test arms were checked for comparability. That is the shape of your problem. Retail media does not lie; it just takes credit.
Strategic direction
You are competing for incrementality, not attribution, and right now you are buying the second and calling it the first. Build the measurement layer under the spend before you argue about the spend, because the intelligence comes first and the media plan comes second. Monday: pick your three largest retail media partners and pull twelve weeks of budget in matched geo holdouts. The question I would open a two-day session with: if the dashboards disappeared tomorrow, which line of this budget would you still defend?
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